For Carsi, the biggest upset of Oscar night came in the short film category. There, the probability of a draw being rewarded was 1%.
But then “The Singers” and “Spitters” shared the award for best live-action short film, making it the seventh tie in Oscar history.
Approximately 40 people bought “Tie” contracts in that category, with an average transaction value of $59 and a total transaction volume of $2,365. Anyone who took that deal saw their investment pay off 100:1. And anyone who bought a contract for any of the actual candidates lost money.
A Kalsi spokesperson said: “The chances of a draw were low, but there were some who made deals.” “This was an option for Kalsi’s live-action short film market. We also made sure people knew the rules by posting them prominently in the market.”
Polymarket handled the partnership issue differently. According to market rules, in case of a tie, the winning contract will be first alphabetically.
That meant that “Two People,” which had been a close favorite heading into the night, ended up being zero. “The Singers” were declared the winners at Polymarket.
“The Singers” was the underdog on both sites, with odds of 28.5% on Polymarket and 17.9% on Kalshi.
The changes in the live-action short film category were relatively minor compared to categories such as Best Actor and Best Picture. On Kalshi, $440,736 was traded in this category, while on Polymarket it was $243,091.
By comparison, about $60 million was transacted in the Best Picture category on both sites. Perhaps the biggest winner here is the academy’s accountant, PricewaterhouseCoopers. The mere $2,365 traded in this most unlikely outcome does not raise any red flags that someone was snitched.
