Who is the “sinner”? I’m sorry, but I’m the winner.
It’s going to be a real thrilling race at the Oscars on Sunday night. One of those awards, Best Actor, is the most competitive in the category in decades. Will Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet or Leonardo DiCaprio win? Hey, Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke have solid shots.
The big battle for Best Picture is between “One Battle After Another” (13 nominations) and “Sinners” (16 nominations, an all-time record). But both big-budget Warner Bros. movies will definitely bring in plenty of money.
Here, Post critic Johnny Oleksinski picks who will and should win at the 2026 Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien on Sunday, March 15 at 7pm ET on ABC.
Best work award
Will win: “The next battle”
Prior to the SAG Awards, awards season was dominated by political, action-packed satires from acclaimed director Paul Thomas Anderson. A number of big awards (particularly the Producers Guild and BAFTA) are almost always equivalent to the Oscars. And I predict it will happen again. When “Sinners” sets their sights on “One Battle,” it’s the story of the night.
Should win: “Hamnet”
Inspired by William Shakespeare and his wife Anne Hathaway, this breathtaking film, sad, tender and beautifully acted, only gets the recognition and attention it deserves come Oscar time.
Best Actress Award
Will Win, Should Win: Jesse Buckley, “Hamnet”
What is a “bride”? Buckley is phenomenal in “Hamnet.” She has won every major pioneer award imaginable. And she is exactly the first young female nominee the Academy wants to celebrate. Think Mikey Madison, Emma Stone, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence. Except for the Irish.
Best Actor Award
Winner: Michael B. Jordan “Sinners”
I’m projecting Jordan because he’s a statistically wise choice. He won the SAG Actor Award, but none of the nominees won the most important BAFTA. So the evidence is on Jordan’s side.
Should Win: Timothée Chalamet “Marty Supreme”
But Timmy could win just as easily. It’s a toss up. He plays flashy roles (I know Jordan plays two different men in the vampire movies, but in the third and final one, the action overwhelms the acting). Or maybe Timmy’s social media stunts are distracting from the truth that he’s doing the best work of his career in an already impressive career. This is on the wire.
Best Supporting Actress Award
Will Win, Should Win: Amy Madigan “Weapons”
Amy Madigan’s first, and so far only, Oscar win was for the perfectly titled 1986 film “Twice in a Lifetime.” This time it should go in a different direction. She is much loved among her peers. And unlike Teyana Taylor’s Beverly Hills Paphidia, who says “goodbye” early, eccentric Aunt Gladys arrives late and stays until the end, which is of great benefit to Madigan.
Best Supporting Actor Award
Will Win: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Penn, who won Best Actor and BAFTA, will likely win his third Oscar for playing the creepy Colonel Lockjaw. A little boring if you ask me.
Should Win: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Many of “Frankenstein” were mediocre, but Elordi was not one of them. Her delicate and expressive acting as a living creature broke through the mountains of makeup and prosthetics and exploded. It would be a great win for Lind as well.
Best Director Award
We will win, we should win: Paul Thomas Anderson “The battles come one after the other”
One Battle wasn’t my favorite movie of the year, but it was clearly a tough one to put together. This feat goes to Anderson, the genius director of “Boogie Nights,” “There Will Be Blood,” “Magnolia,” and “Liquorice Pizza,” and already one of the greatest directors at age 55. He has never won, unfortunately.
Best International Film Award
Winner: “Sentimental Value”, Norway
Joachim Trier’s overrated film features well-known stars (Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning) and has most scenes spoken in English.
We should win: ‘It was just an accident’ France
This Iranian film, directed by Jafar Panahi, was a hilarious, charming and stinging rebuke of the country’s repressive regime, albeit from France. Talk about related movies.
“The Secret Agent” Brazil “Sirāt” Spain “The Voice of Hind Rajab” Tunisia
best song
Will Win, Should Win: “Golden” by “KPop Demon Hunters”
“Golden” is so catchy that it’s the only nominated song to make its way into broader pop culture.
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”
Best Original Screenplay Award
Will win, should win: “Sinner”
Coogler, the writer and director, had very sharp and very creative ideas baked into the script. The most memorable is a time-traveling group dance in a juke joint surrounded by flames.
Must win: “Blue Moon”
But when it comes to pure dialogue, Robert Kaprow’s words to Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart sparkled with a wit and pathos that few playwrights do today.
Best Screenplay Award
Will win: “The next battle”
A Best Picture winner may not win either screenplay award. “Nomadland” and “Oppenheimer” both lost out over the years. But Anderson was known as a gifted and clever writer, and he truly made Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland” his own.
Should win: “Hamnet”
Adapting Maggie O’Farrell’s popular novel into a movie is difficult. But Chao and the author have reimagined the story with such mastery and certainty that you quickly forget it’s based on anything.
Best Animated Feature Film Award
Will win, should win: “KPop Demon Hunter”
This surprise original hit suddenly became Netflix’s most-streamed movie in history last year, with special sing-along screenings in theaters grossing $24 million. To win the industry’s top awards, it must mean something.
“Arco”, “Elio”, “Little Amelie or Rain Characters”, “Zootopia 2”
Best Cinematography Award
Will win, should win: “battle after battle”
The climactic car chase through the rolling desert dunes was simply spectacular.
best casting
The ones who win are the “sinners”
Although this is a long-awaited addition to the category, there is no precedent for statistically suggesting who will win this first go-around. However, “Sinners” won the Artios Award sponsored by the Casting Association.
The winner is “Marty Supreme”
Even the smallest, nameless roles in the table tennis picture are numerous. — Make a lasting impression. It was like Josh Safdie pressing a record in 1950s New York in a time machine.
Best original score
The winner is the “sinner”:
Unlike its competitors, music and musicians play a central role in “Sinners,” with a variety of song styles driving the storytelling. Combine that with Oscar-winning composer Ludwig Göransson of “Oppenheimer,” and you have a winner.
Should win: “Hamnet”
Max Richter’s emotional score did just as much to bring the audience to tears as did Chao’s direction and Buckley’s lead performance.
Best editing award
Will win, should win: “battle after battle”
For the past three years, both the editing and director awards have gone to the Best Picture winner. Although not always the case, given the scope and pace of “One Battle,” we would expect this pattern to repeat itself.
Best Production Design Award
The one who wins is “Frankenstein”
This is one of those technical categories where you can usually replace the word “best” with “most.”
The one who should win is the “sinner”
Beyond Coogler’s infusion of music and history, part of what made “Sinners” better than your average vampire movie was the dusty beauty of its landscapes.
Best Costume Design Award
Will win, should win: “Frankenstein”
Huge period coats and dresses? Please join me too!
Best Hair & Makeup Design
Will Win, Should Win: “Frankenstein”
Exclusive to Elordi creatures.
Best visual effect
Will Win, Should Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash
No matter what you say about “Avatar,” the effects are always surprising. Jurassic World: Rebirth, on the other hand, looked worse than Jurassic Park from 33 years ago.
best sound
Will win, should win: “F1”
And this is “F1”. The F1 racetrack soundscape (the screams of tires hitting the asphalt, lug wrenches in motion, fans screaming, explosions) was an unbilled character in the film.
