Sunday’s BAFTAs were pretty baffling.
Especially if your name is Timothee Chalamet.
In the past, the British awards ceremony, which honors the year’s films, has been a good predictor of the eventual Best Actor Oscar.
Ten of the past 11 winners in London have received their Academy Awards in Los Angeles. (Sorry, Austin Butler).
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But this weekend, for the first time since Jamie Bell took the podium for the title role in Billy Elliot in 2001, an actor who wasn’t even nominated for an Oscar in March won in the category: 33-year-old British Robert Aramayo for The Vow.
Have you never heard of it? That’s because “I Swear” hasn’t been released outside of the U.S. or the U.K. yet.
Chalamet, a regular bridesmaid, has won a Critics’ Choice Award and a Golden Globe, and holds a close lead for “Marty Supreme.”
But given that 25% of Academy voters live overseas and there is considerable overlap with the BAFTAs, Sunday’s loss shows he is weaker than once thought.
Perhaps international contingencies could lean toward Leonardo DiCaprio in BAFTA Best Picture winner One Battle After Another, Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, or Brazil’s Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent.
Chalamet can certainly use the momentum from winning the Best Actor (SAG) Awards next weekend. That was ultimately the driving force behind Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) knocking out Butler (“Elvis”) in 2023.
However, Chalamet won last year’s SAG with “A Complete Unknown,” and no one has ever won the top award twice in a row.
More gasps were heard on the other side of the pond.
Another British actress, Wunmi Mosaku for “Sinners,” won the season’s first major award, Best Supporting Actress. Previously, Teyana Taylor (One Battle) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) raced to the finish line. However, the next three weeks will be a three-way battle.
And One Battle’s Sean Penn, who had been passed over for months by co-stars Benicio Del Toro and Sentimental Value’s Stellan Skarsgård, also finally heard his name called. So this is another tough battle.
What is 99% certain? Jessie Buckley, the hot Irish actress who won Best Actress for Hamnet, is also likely to win an Oscar. Her closest rival, Rose Byrne’s indie effort “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” is so bizarre and divisive.
And “One Battle After Another” and its writer/director Paul Thomas Anderson are poised for a great night at the Dolby Theater on March 15th.
A real corker, as the British say.
