On today’s episode of the “Daily Variety” podcast, in the box office section, Variety’s Rebecca Rubin carefully measures the attendance for the Disney film “The Mandalorian and Grogu” over the Memorial Day weekend holiday. It was a huge test for Disney and Lucasfilm, and for the strength of the Star Wars franchise at the turnstiles. Meanwhile, Focus features’ horror pic “Obsession” grabbed attention for its second weekend.
Rubin, Variety’s box office expert and senior film and media writer, said “The Mandalorian and Grogu,” which grossed $100 million worldwide in its opening slot, faces a high bar even by blockbuster standards, but not as high as “Star Wars” did a decade ago.
“On the one hand, it’s important for any movie to open over $100 million, but on the other hand, this is Star Wars. It’s one of the biggest movie franchises in Hollywood, and with that comes a certain level of box office expectations,” Rubin says.
“This start is about on par with ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story,’ which was the last spin-off attempt. And another way to look at it is that it’s on par with ‘Solo,’ which was the only financial flop in the Star Wars universe. There’s a big asterisk there. That’s because “Solo” cost nearly $300 million to make.”This movie was relatively affordable, at $165 million.”The difference between the two is that they have very different standards for what constitutes commercial success. ”
The biggest challenge for The Mandalorian comes this weekend.
“What’s notable here is that analysts are taking a wait-and-see attitude, because the second weekend will really tell if it’s just fans who came to see this, or if it has appeal beyond its core demographic,” Rubin said.
Focus’s horror pic “Obsession” was a pleasant surprise, beating the opening frame record in its second weekend. Rubin credits much of the credit to following coach Curry Barker on YouTube.
“For a horror movie, a 30% increase in ticket sales from its opening weekend is a really amazing statistic. And it’s a very low-budget movie, so it’s going to make a lot of money. And it’s really attracting a younger audience, and a lot of that is because of the director,” Rubin says. “Currie Barker is energizing audiences and actually getting them to go see movies that have great reviews and very high audience scores in theaters. That’s why horror movies often see a big dip in the second weekend. And most of the time, horror movies tend not to have the best reviews. So this is unprecedented on every level.”
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