2026 Box Office Forecast: Avengers: Doomsday, Spider-Man, Odyssey

For long-suffering movie theaters, relief always seems to be around the corner.
In 2026, many of the biggest movie franchises of all time will return to our screens. It’s a bevy of high-profile spinoffs and sequels, from The Avengers (with Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans back in spandex) to Star Wars, with brief appearances from Mario and Luigi and Buzz and Woody in between.
But since the coronavirus upended the movie business, predicting box office returns has become more difficult than ever. Once Hollywood’s most consistent hitmaker, Marvel last year saw a flurry of hyped superhero films fail to capture audiences, while author-driven films like “Sinners” and animated features like “Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba: Infinity Castle” became 2025’s most unlikely success stories.
So, with that caveat aside, we’re going to stare into our crystal balls and make a daring attempt to predict which movies will either struggle or skyrocket over the next 12 months.

certain thing

Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Universal)

Release date: April 3rd
Thrill Factor: Generations of gamers have visited the familiar Mushroom Kingdom that helped make “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” a billion-dollar blockbuster. Especially since it has more or less dominated the spring box office, the sequel should receive similar reviews.
Chill factor: Video game adaptations like “The Minecraft Movie” and “Sonic the Hedgehog” are one of the only genres that reliably works. Is it possible that we are approaching supersaturation?
Verdict: Who are you kidding? The Nintendo brand is king, and our mustachioed brethren are its most beloved ambassadors.

Toy Story 5 (Disney)

Release date: June 19th
Thrill Factor: “Toy Story” is Pixar’s finest, and as it confronts the reality that kids would rather play with screens than dolls, it feels like a timely reason to revisit the animated world of talking toys.
The cold factor: Are tech-advanced establishments too close to home for parents who want to park their kids in front of an iPad at a restaurant?
Verdict: Woody and Buzz may be afraid of smart tablets, but they don’t have to worry about box office returns. Toy Story 5 will be the biggest family movie of the year.

Odyssey (Universal)

Release date: July 17th
Thrill Factor: Christopher Nolan turned the life of J. Robert Oppenheimer into a silver screen sensation. Trojan War sounds more commercial, but it helps that the actor playing Tunick includes top-notch actors like Matt Damon, Tom Holland, and Zendaya.
Chill Factor: Homer? During the summer? Sounds like homework.
Verdict: July belongs to Nolan, who debuted blockbusters like The Dark Knight and Dunkirk at the height of popcorn season. “Odyssey” joins the club.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day (Sony)

Release date: July 31st
Thrill factor: Tom Holland is dusting off his Spider-Man suit for the first time since 2021’s No Way Home was a $1.9 billion blockbuster. This movie was a huge failure. That means many have been waiting to see what happens after Peter Parker makes the difficult decision to erase his identity from the world.
Chill Factor: “No Way Home” became a cinematic event in part because a multi-world shenanigans saw two previous Spider-Men, Andrew Garfield and Tobey Maguire, save the day with Holland. Could just one Spidey on screen create such excitement?
Verdict: Marvel’s box office numbers may be down, but Spider-Man remains on the A-list of comic books.

safe bet

The Mandalorian and Grogu (Disney)

The Mandalorian and Grogu — Disney
Release date: May 22nd
Thrill factor: The last Star Wars movie, 2019’s billion-dollar blockbuster The Rise of Skywalker, was released seven years ago. Since then, Baby Yoda (formerly known as the Child and given name Grogu) has become widely known through the hit Disney+ series The Mandalorian.
The Chilling Factor: It felt like Lucasfilm was struggling for a long time to get its theatrical release back on track. Meanwhile, Disney+ has become a popular destination for everything from The Book of Boba Fett and Ahsoka to Andor and more, all set in a galaxy far, far away. Do audiences still associate Star Wars with the movie experience, or is it a series they now prefer to watch at home?
Verdict: “The Mandalorian and Grogu” will benefit from goodwill and brand recognition. However, not all Star Wars spinoffs make a big impact at the box office.

Avengers: Doomsday (Disney)

Release date: December 18th
Thrill Factor: Downey and Evans return to the MCU, bringing two of its most powerful heroes back into the fold. They’ll be joined by fan-favorite characters from the X-Men and Fantastic Four for a truly “all the gang here” extravaganza.
Chill Factor: Superhero fatigue is real, and Marvel can’t seem to shake it off. The studio’s last few films (‘Thunderbolts,’ ‘Captain America: Brave New World,’ and ‘Fantastic Four: First Steps’) have all been box office disappointments.
Verdict: Absence makes the heart grow fonder. It’s been six years since the last “Avengers” adventure, and the presence of Evans and Downey makes this sequel a real event.

Verity (Amazon MGM)

Release date: October 2nd
Thrill Factor: Colleen Hoover could whisper another box office hit after “It Ends With Us” was a sleeper success for Sony and “Regretting You” was one of Paramount’s only profitable theatrical releases in 2025. “Verity” follows a struggling writer who is asked to write a hit series after he is injured, and promises spooky performances from stars Dakota Johnson and Anne Hathaway.
Chill factor: Adult fare is unfortunately always a risk in a post-pandemic situation.
Verdict: “Verity” will be a big hit with women in the vein of “The Housemaid” and “A Simple Favor,” as twisted thrillers are fun to watch in large groups.

question mark

Project Hail Mary (Amazon MGM)

Release date: March 20th
Thrill Factor: Phil Lord and Christopher Miller return to the director’s chair for the first time since 2014’s 22 Jump Street. In “Project Hail Mary,” the highly entertaining filmmaker teams up with the endlessly charming Ryan Gosling for a sci-fi adventure about an amnesiac astronaut on a mission to save the world from Armageddon.
Sobering factor: Amazon MGM has no track record of launching original properties, and with a hefty $150 million budget, “Project Hail Mary” will need to pack them in to justify its price tag.
Verdict: Gosling, a versatile actor who should have won an Oscar for his performance in “I’m Just Ken” at the Academy Awards ceremony, is not a bankable star. After all, his 2024 action comedy The Fall Guy flopped in theatrical release despite stellar reviews. This means that quality alone is not enough to attract people to multiplexes. It’s up to the studio’s marketing department to turn this film into a must-see movie event.

Disclosure Day (Universal)

Release date: June 12th
Thrill Factor: For decades, Steven Spielberg has been synonymous with blockbuster entertainment. Now the man who created “Indiana Jones” and “ET” has returned to spectacle-style filmmaking with an alien invasion adventure.
Chill Factor: Do you still have your old master? Spielberg has spent most of the past 20 years directing Oscar hopefuls like “Bridge of Spies” and “Lincoln.” Has he outgrown his populist roots?
Verdict: The title sounds like a bad airplane novel, but the trailer provides plenty of thrills. It’s hard to convince people to participate in games or anything that isn’t based on known assets.

Clayface (Warner Brothers)

Release date: September 11th
Thrill Factor: In the comic book adaptation, viewers are fine with familiar faces, but clearly don’t want to see more of the same story. In that respect, “Clayface” is a physical horror movie about a disfigured actor who takes the drastic step of turning his body into clay, and feels very different from “Brave New World,” “Thunderbolts,” or the family-friendly “Superman.”
Chill Factor: Has anyone on this planet or any other planet ever heard of Clayface?
Verdict: James Gunn and Peter Safran may have revived the DCU with Superman, but not every comic book character deserves the big screen treatment.

Practical Magic 2 (Warner Bros.)

Release date: September 18th
Thrill Factor: Nearly 30 years after the first “Practical Magic” became a cult hit on home entertainment, remember VHS? — Sandra Bullock and Nicole Kidman reunite in another supernatural romantic comedy.
Chill Factor: It’s worth noting that Practical Magic was a huge flop when it was released in 1998. Given Bullock and Kidman’s price tag, Warners is probably hoping they’ll cast an even stronger spell on moviegoers in 2025.
Verdict: Nostalgia is powerful. Look at other long-conceived sequels like “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice.” But this follow-up feels random. Who else is calling for this other than Bullock and Kidman’s representatives?

biggest risk

Bride! (Warner Brothers)

Release date: March 6th
Thrill Factor: Audiences are showing interest in auteur-driven horror films like Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Robert Egger’s “Nosferatu.” Maggie Gyllenhaal, who impressed with her directorial debut The Lost Daughter, offers a bold vision with the steampunk-inspired Frankenstein.
Chill factor: Guillermo del Toro just co-starred with Mary Shelley in last fall’s “Frankenstein.” Some stories don’t need to be revived over and over again.
Verdict: The buzz around the $80 million production cost was scary. Unless critics swoon, audiences won’t flock to see this undead couple in action.

Hoppers (Disney)

Release date: March 6th
Thrill Factor: Family movies are almost always all the rage. And since the most recent animated adventure was the “SpongeBob SquarePants” sequel in December, “Hoppers” should benefit from pent-up demand.
Chill factor: Pixar hasn’t had success releasing a new animated film since 2017’s musical hit “Coco.” Even “Elio,” which received positive reviews last year, did not perform well at the box office. Additionally, the plot, which revolves around a scientist who can transfer human consciousness into robotic animals, seems a bit confusing.
Verdict: “The Hoppers” is undeniably great and needs to be marketable for parents. Otherwise, Pixar is doomed to retreat into the world of sequels, and will likely be forced to send something new to streaming.

Digger (Warner Brothers)

Release date: October 2nd
Thrill Factor: It’s been a while since Tom Cruise, who once worked with Spielberg and Scorsese, put himself in the hands of a true master. He is Alejandro G. Iñárritu, one of the greatest players to ever go behind the camera.
Chill Factor: These two partner in a story of a powerful man trying to save humanity from a disaster of his own making. We just lived in the era of Elon Musk and DOGE. Oh, it’s a comedy.
Verdict: Depends on execution. Cruise’s movies are expensive, so unless they give WB a big deal, Cruise and Iñárritu would be better off delivering the next “Tropic Thunder.”