Jeff Probst slammed prediction market platforms like Calci and Polymarket that allow users to trade on the winner of Season 50 of “Survivor,” saying the companies “encourage people to lie, cheat, and steal to get ahead.”
“They figured out a way to leverage (the show),” he told Variety. “That doesn’t sit well with me as a human being. I get it. They’ve built a great business. They don’t care.”
Aubrey Bracco wasn’t officially named the sole survivor of “Survivor 50” until Wednesday night’s finale, but many fans had spoiled her win beforehand due to widely circulated reports about her odds on Calci and Polymarket. Both platforms projected her win rate to be over 80% before the season even started. By the final episode, Carsi’s “Survivor” market volume had reached $32.7 million, giving Bracco a 97% win rate.
Just before the finale was released on Wednesday night, Carsi sent out a push notification that read, “Survivor S50 Finale Tonight. Aubrey is at 97% — is the island already set?”
Mr. Probst learned for the first time just how much money was in Carsi’s “Survivor” market and why they had issued the cheeky notice during an interview with Variety magazine. “I’m not happy about it,” he said. “I’m learning this in real time. Will this be announced before the finale?”
Aubrey Bracco talks about ‘Survivor’ season 50 finale
Robert Votes/CBS
As reported by Variety, Hollywood executives are concerned that the growing popularity of prediction markets is leading to insider trading, and that the prevalence of spoilers will reduce suspense and negatively impact show ratings. But Kalsi is adamant that the ban on insider trading is effectively enforced and that its “survivor” market is thoroughly investigated. Company executives believe traders are taking advantage of public rumors on Reddit and other online communities. And while the anonymous people who started these rumors may be insiders who have broken non-disclosure agreements, the traders hearing them are still following the law. Therefore, it is not Kalsi’s responsibility to police them.
The cast and crew of “Survivor” all signed agreements prohibiting them from gambling or using insider information for financial gain, and additional reminders were sent out during the release of season 50, specifically mentioning Kalsi and Polimarket. CBS also plans to include language about prediction markets in future “Survivor” contracts.
But Probst argues that it’s unfair to put the onus on networks and studios to control the spread of these spoilers.
“Obviously, if 90% of the people are voting for someone, there’s been a leak. But from our perspective, it looks like the producers are holding the mirror in the wrong direction, as if we’re the problem,” he says. “It’s[prediction market platforms]that have the problem, not us. We’re building the show in a vacuum and keeping it tightly contained, but if you’re too stupid and naive to think that someone might leak it, that’s your problem.”
“If you think ‘Survivor’ needs to manage our spoilers better, you don’t know anything about humans. That’s ridiculous. Are you saying there’s a way to make money by sharing the information I have, and I might never get caught? Of course people will. And if they found out that anyone on our show was betting on this, they’d be fired.”
In a new statement, Karsi spokeswoman Elizabeth Diana emphasized the company’s position that prediction markets are additive to the reality TV experience and can create excitement rather than suppress ratings. But the company is now taking Probst’s concerns seriously.
“If the market volume for ‘Survivor’ is any indication, this isn’t going to stop people from being interested in ‘Survivor,'” Diana says. “That being said, we are considering adding product features to prevent spoilers.”
