Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“No Other Choice”
CJ ENM
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Sept. 18, 2025): The state of the Oscar race is only beginning to take shape, but three major fall festivals — Telluride, Venice and Toronto — have already provided a crucial first glimpse at what could dominate this season.
At the Venice Film Festival, Jim Jarmusch’s “Father Mother Sister Brother” from Mubi, captured the Golden Lion for best film. The triptych drama, weaving together three families and their fragile bonds, stunned some pundits who expected bigger studio fare to triumph. Will the film factor into the race or was this a Venice one-off?
Meanwhile, Benny Safdie’s “The Smashing Machine,” a bruising drama starring Dwayne Johnson as MMA fighter Mark Kerr, picked up the Silver Lion for best director. Venice’s Grand Jury Prize went to the politically charged “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” a Gaza-set drama that instantly sparked buzz for international feature consideration.
The Toronto International Film Festival continued its reputation as the launchpad for awards momentum. Chloé Zhao’s Shakespeare-inspired “Hamnet” captured the coveted People’s Choice Award, immediately bolstering its best picture chances. Zhao also became the first filmmaker to win the prize twice, following her 2020 victory with “Nomadland,” which went on to win best picture and best director at the Oscars.
Since the Academy expanded the best picture field in 2009, TIFF winners have consistently served as Oscar bellwethers. Films such as “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) went all the way, while others like “The Fabelmans” (2022) remained dominant players throughout awards season. The only outlier remains Nadine Labaki’s “Where Do We Go Now?” (2011), which failed to score a best picture nomination.
This year, Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” landed as the first runner-up at TIFF, cementing its status as a major awards player, despite tepid reviews. At the same time, Rian Johnson’s “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” claimed the third-place slot, and could be a player in adapted screenplay and supporting actress for Glenn Close.
The International People’s Choice winner was Park Chan-wook’s South Korean satirical thriller “No Other Choice,” ahead of runner-up “Sentimental Value” from Norwegian director Joachim Trier. The international race is as competitive as ever with Neon steering five contenders that could make the cut.
Telluride, which doesn’t hand out formal awards but often shapes early critical consensus, showcased several of the season’s buzziest contenders including Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Bugonia” with Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone.
Kathryn Bigelow’s “A House of Dynamite,” an 18-minute ticking-clock thriller spanning three chapters, marks her return to the Oscar race since her historic win for “The Hurt Locker” (2009). Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” also debuted to heated praise, and a current 96 on Metacritic and 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. Is this the movie of the year, or will industry professionals find solace in other movies?
Warner Bros. is also juggling this season, along with Netflix and Focus Features.
Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” bolstered by strong performances from Michael B. Jordan, Miles Caton, Delroy Lindo, Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku, is still a favorite among movie lovers. Can it stay in the conversation?
Universal Pictures’ highly anticipated “Wicked: For Good” is ready to descend onto the race, with buzz building for strong below-the-line support and the potential for Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande to land their second Oscar nomination. And of course, there’s director Jon M. Chu, who will be a huge focus of the campaign.
Still ahead we have Craig Brewer’s “Song Sung Blue” with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson, Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme” with Timothee Chalamet and Bradley Cooper’s “Is This Thing On?” with Will Arnett and Laura Dern.
The first official charts for best director are out today. The overall Oscar predictions updates are below.
Top 4 projected Oscar leaders (films): “Hamnet” (11); “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” (10); “Wicked: For Good” (9); “Bugonia” and “A House of Dynamite” (8)
Top 5 projected Oscar leaders (studios): Focus Features (23); Warner Bros. (22); Netflix (21); Neon (12); Universal Pictures (10)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
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Director
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Actor
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Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Actress
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Supporting Actor
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Supporting Actress
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Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Casting
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Original Screenplay
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Adapted Screenplay
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Animated Feature
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Production Design
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Cinematography
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Costume Design
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Film Editing
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Makeup and Hairstyling
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Sound
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Visual Effects
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Original Score
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Original Song
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Documentary Feature
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International Feature
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