As comedian Nikki Glazer prepares to take the stage at the 83rd Golden Globe Awards, the usual late-game angst is setting in. With voting closing on Jan. 3 and the industry taking its final temperature, the winner predictions reflect a Globes lineup that balances prestige and populism, with enough unpredictability to keep pundits hedging their bets.
In the Best Picture Award (drama category), it seems difficult to surpass director Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet.” In theory, there’s a late-game scenario where Ryan Coogler’s Sinners overcomes that, but with the vampire drama dominating the movie and box office categories (and Ludwig Göransson’s original score), the Globes may choose to spread the wealth.
That thinking extends to actresses, too, with “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley seemingly poised to turn critical acclaim into televised triumphs. A win at the Globes would officially begin the march toward Oscar night, provided he can thwart “Sentimental Value”‘s Renate Reinsve.
Comedy and musical races are relatively simple. Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” is widely expected to win the top prize, and director Paul Thomas Anderson is poised to add to his best director win for the film. The Globe Theater has historically been friendly to this category of independent-minded studio plays, and “One Battle” fits neatly into that mold. If it ultimately wins both the Globes and Oscars, it will join the ranks of rare comedy and musical champions who went on to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards, including “Green Book,” “The Artist,” and “Shakespeare in Love.”
Marty Supreme, Timothée Chalamet, 2025. © A24 / Provided by Everett Collection
Courtesy of Everett Collection
Acting races are a mix of expected outcomes and unexpected outcomes. Ethan Hawke’s performance as Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s Blue Moon, both comedies and musicals, has been underappreciated in some circles, and the film’s unexpected Best Picture nomination suggests a stronger support than expected. Hawke has a good chance of leapfrogging Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme” and Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another.”
For actresses (comedy or musical), Rose Byrne is the safest bet for “If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You,” possibly surpassing Cynthia Erivo’s appearance in “Wicked: For Good” and Chase Infinity’s breakout role in “One Battle After Another.”
Meanwhile, Erivo’s co-star Ariana Grande appears to have a realistic chance of winning her first major award season award with her win for Best Supporting Actress for Wicked: For Good, unless Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Inga Ybsdotter Lilleas (Sentimental Value) remain upset. Stellan Skarsgard is likely to win Best Supporting Actor for Sentimental Value.
The lead actor (drama) race is expected to go down in history, with “The Secret Agent” star Wagner Moura narrowly edging out “The Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan to win. Moura, the first Brazilian man nominated in the category, appears to be following in the footsteps of Fernanda Torres, who won a Globe last year for her role in “I’m Still Here.”
Elsewhere, “It Was Just an Accident” is favored by non-English films (though conversations with voters suggest “The Secret Agent” will win again), while Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” is predicted to win in animated films and chart-topper “Golden” original songs, rounding out the film category.
Depending on which direction voters go, it could potentially make history in the screenplay category. Paul Thomas Anderson could score a rare hat trick with his expected directorial and best picture win for “One Battle After Another.” Only one other writer/director/producer has ever achieved that feat at the Golden Globes: Oliver Stone for the war drama Born on Independence Day (1989). Notably, the film went on to lose the Best Picture award.
There’s also a credible scenario in which two non-English films, “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value,” emerge victorious. Still, there appears to be enough support among voters to push Ryan Coogler across the finish line with Sinners, making him the first black winner of the Globes’ screenplay category. He is the fifth black person overall to be nominated for the role, following Charles Fuller (1984), Spike Lee (1989), John Ridley (2013), and Barry Jenkins (2016, 2018).
And if Chloe Zhao wins alongside co-writer Maggie O’Farrell for “Hamnet,” she will become the first East Asian winner in the category.
The real question is whether the Globes will validate that consensus or remind everyone that surprises remain part of their enduring brand.
The predictions for the final Golden Globe winners are as follows:
Jesse Buckley stars as Agnes and Paul Mescal stars as William Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet
Agata Grzybowska
film
Best Picture Award (Drama)
Winner: “Hamnet” (featured feature)
Chances of winning: “Sinners” and “Sentimental Value”
Best Film (Musical or Comedy)
Will Win: “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Chances of winning: “Marty Supreme” and “Bugonia”
Best Actor Award (Drama Category)
Winner: Wagner Moura “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
Winners: Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)
Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Winner: Timothée Chalamet “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Winners: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Best Actress Award (Drama Category)
Winner: Jesse Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Winners: Renate Reinsv (“Sentimental Value”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Die My Love”)
Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Win: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I Would Kick You” (A24)
Likely to win: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked: For Good”) and Chase Infinity (“One Battle After Another”)
Best Supporting Actor Award
Winner: Stellan Skarsgård “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Winners: Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) and Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”)
Best Supporting Actress Award
Winner: Inga Ebsdotter Lillias, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Winners: Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) and Emily Blunt (“The Smashing Machine”)
Best Director Award
Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Likelihood to win: Jafar Panahi and Ryan Coogler
Best Screenplay Award
Winner: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
Chance of winning: “It was just an accident” and “emotional value”
Best original score
Winner: Ludwig Göransson, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Chances of winning: “One Battle After Another” and “Sirāt”
Best original song
Winner: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Ido, 24, Teddy
Chances of winning: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” and “The Girl in the Bubble” from “Wicked: For Good.”
Best Animated Work Award
Winner candidate: “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
Award nominees: “Zootopia 2” and “Little Amelie, or Rain Characters”
Best Non-English Language
Winner: “The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Brazil
Chance of winning: “It was just an accident” and “emotional value”
Movies and box office results
Winner: “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Chance of winning: “KPop Demon Hunters” and “F1”
puberty. (Left to right) Stephen Graham as Eddie Miller, Christine Tremarco as Manda Miller
Provided by Netflix
tv set
Best TV Series (Drama)
Winner: “The Pit” (HBO Max)
Possibility of winning: “Disconnection” and “Pluribus”
Best TV Series (Musical or Comedy)
Winner: “The Studio” (Apple TV)
Chances of winning: “hack” and “no one wants this”
Best limited series
Will Win: “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Likelihood of winning: “Black Mirror” and “All Her Fault”
Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama Category)
Winner: Noah Wyle, “The Pit” (HBO Max)
Likelihood to win: Adam Scott and Diego Luna
Best Actor in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)
Winner: Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV)
Chances of winning: Glen Powell and Adam Brody
Best Actor in a TV Series (Limited)
Winner: Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Chances of winning: Charlie Hunnam and Matthew Rhys
Best Actress Award (Drama Category)
Winner: Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Chances of winning: Kathy Bates and Britt Lower
Best Actress in a TV Series (Musical or Comedy)
Winner: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Chances of winning: Kristen Bell and Jenna Ortega
Best Actress in a TV Series (Limited)
Winner: Sarah Snook “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Chances of winning: Michelle Williams and Claire Danes
Best Supporting Actor Award for Television
Winner: Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Likelihood to win: Tramell Tillman and Walton Goggins
Best Supporting Actress on TV
Winner: Erin Doherty “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Chances of winning: Hannah Einbinder and Carrie Coon
Best Performance in a Stand-up Comedy on TV
Winner: Ricky Gervais, “Ricky Gervais: Mortality” (Netflix)
Chances of winning: Brett Goldstein and Sarah Silverman
best podcast
Will Wynn: “Good Hang with Amy Poehler” (Spotify)
Chances of winning: “Call Her Daddy” and “SmartLess”
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