What Did It Mean to the Oscars Race?

Golden Globes night rarely settles an Oscar race.

Does anyone remember last year, when the headlines depicted a race between “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez”? And look how that one turned out (“Anora” claimed victory). However, what it does do — particularly in a year as ideologically and stylistically fractured as this one — is clarify the fault lines. The 83rd Golden Globe Awards did exactly that, handing decisive wins to “Hamnet” and “One Battle After Another,” while affirming a season defined by ambition, risk-taking and an electorate increasingly comfortable with bold swings.

For Variety, it was also a night of precision. Our predictions landed 25 of the ceremony’s 28 categories, including television — an unusually strong showing that underscored how clearly the industry’s currents have begun to align as Oscar voting officially opens. Perhaps the biggest surprise, however, was that there weren’t many surprises at all.

The Globes’ top prizes drew a sharp but telling contrast. Best motion picture (drama) went to “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao’s restrained, emotionally exacting meditation on grief and marriage set in William Shakespeare’s orbit. Anchored by Jessie Buckley’s interiorized performance — rewarded with best actress (drama) — the film has steadily accumulated prestige support throughout the season. Its Globes victory confirms that quieter, literary cinema still has a potent constituency within the international community and, increasingly, the Academy itself.

Best motion picture (musical or comedy) belonged to “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s ferocious satire of radical politics and cultural decay. The win capped a dominant evening for the film, which also took best director and screenplay for Anderson, as well as a supporting actress prize for Teyana Taylor — a much-needed win for her campaign as the film seeks an acting victory on Oscar night. If “Hamnet” can represent the Academy’s reflective, humanist wing, “One Battle After Another” is the season’s provocation — loud, abrasive and unapologetically political.

The Globes’ history cautions against simple cause-and-effect forecasting, but momentum does matter — and both films gained it in different ways. “One Battle After Another” now enters Oscar voting with the clearest narrative: a major auteur firing on all cylinders, delivering a film that has galvanized actors, writers and directors alike. Anderson’s Globes sweep places him squarely at the center of the best director and adapted screenplay conversations.

Meanwhile, “Hamnet” solidified its position as the season’s emotional counterweight. Buckley’s win over a formidable lineup that included Renate Reinsve, Jennifer Lawrence and Julia Roberts signals deep support, while the film’s best picture (drama) victory reinforces its standing as a potential spoiler down the road for the Focus Features critical hit. Its challenge will be scale — and whether subtlety can compete with spectacle and satire once preferential ballots come into play.

Elsewhere, the Globes voters continued their tradition of embracing breadth. “Sinners” claimed the cinematic and box office achievement award (I’m still not a huge fan of this category), a win that further cements Ryan Coogler’s genre-bending epic as a populist powerhouse. Ludwig Göransson’s original score victory (ugh, during commercial break) for the film conveys its technical strength heading into the guild part of the phase two season. Don’t count it out in the best picture race either, as a top three has clearly emerged with “One Battle After Another,” “Hamnet” and “Sinners.”

International cinema also made its mark. Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” won best non-English-language motion picture (the second for the country), with Wagner Moura taking best actor (drama) — a pairing that mirrors the late-surging success of Walter Salles’ “I’m Still Here” last year with Fernanda Torres. This places the Neon contender within arm’s reach of the best picture race, surpassing Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident.”

The win was especially important for Moura after missing out on a nomination at the Actor Awards and failing to make the BAFTA longlist. Supporting actor winner Stellan Skarsgård for Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value” was also left out of the Actor Awards. Both victories provide crucial late-stage momentum as Oscar ballots are cast.

In addition to Skarsgård, who lost the Critics Choice Award to Jacob Elordi for “Frankenstein,” the Globes represented a sigh of relief. With the Swedish veteran absent from the Actor Awards lineup, the path now opens for Elordi to prove that the Critics Choice win was no fluke — or for contenders like Benicio del Toro or Sean Penn from “One Battle After Another” to capitalize if the film ultimately enjoys a winning night at the Oscars.

Timothée Chalamet became the youngest winner in the best actor (musical or comedy) category for his performance as a table tennis prodigy in Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” besting veterans Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke for “Blue Moon.” If he can carry that momentum into phase two voting among SAG-AFTRA members, he could effectively lock up the Oscar race ahead of the March 15 ceremony. His A24 counterpart Rose Byrne earned her first Globe for Mary Bronstein’s “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” a victory that places her on a strong track for a first Academy Award nomination.

The best actress race, meanwhile, remains a bloodbath. Renate Reinsve, Emma Stone, Kate Hudson, Chase Infiniti, Cynthia Erivo and several others are all vying for inclusion in a category with just five available slots, a level of competition that all but guarantees notable omissions on Oscar nomination morning.

Best animated film went to Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters,” which also earned best original song for “Golden.” Both wins position the film as the category frontrunner. Attention now turns to BAFTA, where “KPop Demon Hunters” was not eligible, and which title the British Academy ultimately rewards.

On the television side, the Globes rewarded clarity and consistency. HBO’s “The Pitt” emerged as the dominant drama, winning best series and best actor for Noah Wyle, while Apple TV’s “The Studio” took top comedy honors alongside a best actor win for Seth Rogen, capping banner freshman seasons with one major stop remaining at the Actor Awards.

Limited series honors went to Netflix’s “Adolescence,” which swept acting categories with wins for Stephen Graham, Erin Doherty and Owen Cooper, nearly completing a perfect television season that began at last year’s Emmys.

If there was a unifying theme to the night, it was confidence in where things currently stand. The winners were not compromise picks. They were decisive expressions of taste — sometimes commercial, sometimes cerebral, often challenging.

The Golden Globes did not end the race. But they sharpened it.

The updated Oscar predictions are below.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Best Picture
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***

Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.) ***
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger

Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar ***

Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Allison Jones

Animated Feature
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle” (Crunchyroll)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***

Production Design
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — James Price, Prue Howard, Sarah Carter
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne

Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Darius Khondji
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Łukasz Żal
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso

Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Malgosia Turzanska
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Paul Tazewell

Film Editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Michael P. Shawver

Makeup and Hairstyling
“The Alto Knights” (Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Sound
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (DC Studios)

Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Bryce Dessner

Original Song
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” from “Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment) — Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq

Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Autlook Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
“Kokuho” from Japan (GKids)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon) ***
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)

Animated Short
“Cardboard” (Locksmith Animation) — dir. J.P. Vine
“Éiru” (GKids) — dir. Giovanna Ferrari ***
“Hurikán” (AEON Production) — dir. Jan Saska
“The Quinta’s Ghost” (Illusorium Films) — dir. James A. Castillo
“The Shyness of Trees” (Gobelins, l’Ecole de l’Image) — dir. Sofiia Chuikovska, Loïck Du Plessis D’Argentré, Lina Han, Simin He, Jiaxin Huang, Maud Le Bras, Bingqing Shu

Documentary Short
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — dir. Joshua Seftel ***
“All the Walls Came Down” (Interloper Films) — dir. Ondi Timoner
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Brent Renaud and Craig Renaud
“Chasing Time” (Exposure Labs) — dir. Sarah Keo and Jeff Orlowski-Yang
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Geeta Gandbhir, Christalyn Hampton

Live Action Short
“Extremist” (The New Yorker) — dir. Aleksandr Molochnikov
“Pantyhose” (Wildhog Productions) — dir. Fabian Munsterhjelm
“Rock, Paper, Scissors” (National Film and Television School)
“The Singers” (Highway West Entertainment)
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (The New Yorker) ***