Oscar voting is almost over, but the question of which films and performances will dominate this year’s Academy Award nominations is still up in the air. The Variety Awards circuit’s podcast roundtable team gathered to break down how the race was going, how the Golden Globes’ results affected voting, and whether there’s any scorn or surprise lurking.
After a lively conversation about Rhea Seehorn and Apple TV’s hit drama series Pluribus, we entered the night at the Globes. “One Battle After Another” led the night with four wins, including Best Picture (Comedy or Musical). At the same time, Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” won the Best Picture (Drama) award, while Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” won the Box Office and Motion Picture Achievement categories.
“We got 25 out of 28 points, and it feels very climactic,” said Awards Editor-in-Chief Clayton Davis. “You might be a ‘Joe Schmo’ from the streets who predicted the globe and nailed 85% of it.”
Podcasters agreed that the only real shockers were Michelle Williams’ win on the TV side for “Dying for Sex” and Teyana Taylor’s win for Best Supporting Actress for “One Battle After Another.” And even if they’re considered surprises, we shouldn’t fault groups too harshly for chasing the tea leaves worthy of fall and winter awards season.
In addition to announcing what the group agreed to be the “speech of the night,” deputy features editor Jenelle Riley also referred to Taylor as “the star of the BAFTA Tea Party,” which took place the day before the Golden Globes.
The group also analyzed the potential for “fluidity” between who appears and who does not appear in both female performance categories. Discussions include the possibility of Ariana Grande receiving a Best Supporting Actress nomination for “Wicked: For Good,” and the uncertainty of whether Emma Stone and Kate Hudson will receive Best Actress nominations for “Bugonia” and “Song San Bleu.”
And it is possible that populist options lurk within this conflict.
Apple’s high-stakes race car drama “F1” is becoming a Best Picture contender by the day. Senior Journeyman Editor Jazz Tankay noted the film’s extensive Q&A event and strong support from the Guild, while Executive TV Editor Michael Schneider, who saw the film twice this year, praised it as a “classic sports movie” that “has all the beats you want.”
Tancay also pointed out that the cinematography of Autumn Duraldo Arkapor’s “Sinners” seems like a difficult feat to get nominated for, calling it “the best film of the year” and predicting that the Filipino cinematographer will make history with the nomination. However, she admits that Brazilian Adolfo Veloso’s “Train Dreams” could be the favorite.
The group also discussed potential surprises in makeup and hairstyling, including the unibrow and acne detailing of “Marty Supreme” and the possibility of legendary musician Billy Joel scoring his first career nomination for the documentary “Billy Joel Should Be Dead.”
Oscar nominations will be announced on January 22nd, with the awards ceremony scheduled for March 15th.
Variety’s Awards Circuit podcast, hosted by Clayton Davis, Jazz Tunkay, Emily Longeretta, Jenelle Riley, and Michael Schneider, who also produces, is your one-stop destination for lively conversations about the best in film and television. Each episode’s “Awards Circuit” features interviews with top film and TV talents and creators, discussions and debates about the awards race and industry headlines. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you download your podcasts.
