The Producers Guild of America Awards have been very influential in the Oscar conversation for years.
The PGA is at the center of every Best Picture discussion for one structural reason. That’s because the PGA uses preferential voting, the same vote tabulation system that the Academy uses to determine Best Picture.
This is important because preferential voting doesn’t just reward passion. It rewards broad consensus.
In normal plurality voting, the movie with the most passion wins. In the preferential model, voters rank the nominees, and if no film receives a majority of first-place votes, the lowest ranked title is eliminated and its votes are redistributed based on the next choice. This process continues until one film exceeds 50% plus 1.
What that means is that the “most loved” movie doesn’t win. On the contrary, it’s my favorite. A divisive front-runner could lose to a film that is widely popular across its voting bloc. Movies that give many voters their second or third choice are likely to last longer than those that garner enthusiastic support from one wing of the industry but provoke resistance from others.
This season’s PGA 10 is also notable for nearly mirroring the Best Picture Oscar, with a high-profile switch when “Weapons” replaced Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” as the PGA nominee.
As we approach the Feb. 28 ceremony, where Amy Pascal, Jason Blum, and Mara Brock Akil will receive honorary recognition, the final Best Picture puzzle becomes less about who’s the loudest and more about who’s the hardest to rank.
Final Oscar voting will take place from February 26th to March 5th. The 98th Oscar Awards will be held on March 15th on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Below is a summary of the pros and cons of each title for each candidate for the Daryl F. Zanuck Award.
“Bugonia”
Image credit: ©Focus features/Courtesy of Everett Collection
Producers: Ed Guiney, PGA, Andrew Lowe, PGA, Yorgos Lanthimos, PGA, Emma Stone, PGA, Lars Knudsen, PGA
for:
Directed by Yorgos Lanthimos, the film has the cinematic aspects that could generate real passion among voters who prioritize original risk, tonal ambition, and idiosyncratic filmmaking choices. In a ranked selection race, a dedicated 1st place block like this can be extremely valuable early in the round, especially if the field is fragmented. It would also help the ambitions of central star Emma Stone, who has proven to be a notable producer on her projects.
For:
The very qualities that create passion can also create resistance. The preferential treatment system is unforgiving towards films that provoke a “top or bottom” reaction. That’s because survival in later rounds requires strength in the median vote among a wide range of voters.
“F1”
Image credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Producer: Chad Orman, Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Joseph Kosinski, Jerry Bruckheimer
for:
Apple’s ambitious race film, directed by Joseph Kosinski, appeals to a sizable electorate that values theatrical size. In the industry, films that demonstrate top-notch production logistics and commercial appeal can command respect beyond pure critical enthusiasm.
For:
Its core vulnerability is respect without urgency. Movies in this lane are often praised, but they aren’t always ranked first or second by voters enough to determine a clear winner.
“Frankenstein”
Image credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy of Everett Collection
Producer: Guillermo del Toro, PGA, J. Miles Dale, PGA, Scott Stuber, PGA
for:
Guillermo del Toro’s monster blockbuster has the potential to unite craft-first voters with story-first voters. The prestige genre works really well when it exceeds category expectations and feels like a full-spectrum cinematic achievement.
For:
Genre friction remains a real factor in some awards voting. Even when widely respected, genre-adjacent films are sometimes treated as “triumphs of technology” rather than top prize choices. Also, if you’re a horror fan, you might not like “Sinners.”
“Hamnet”
Image credit: ©Focus features/Courtesy of Everett Collection
Producers: Lisa Marshall, PGA, Pippa Harris, PGA, Sam Mendes, PGA, Steven Spielberg, PGA, Nicholas Gonda, PGA
for:
Chloé Zhao’s Shakespeare play seems like a candidate built for stability. Movies in this emotional mold often have a hard time ranking at the bottom for voters, which is a huge advantage. It also helps that familiar names like Oscar winners Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes also appear. If the race descends into chaos, “Hamnet” could be a compromise winner for many camps. It won’t necessarily be everyone’s favorite, but it will survive consistently enough in the standings and could soar as more polarizing titles drop out.
For:
The main risk is that “Hamnet” becomes racing’s most admired and least admired film. There’s a difference between being universally liked and being actively preferred. It feels like the antithesis of many “One Battle” and “Marty Supreme” voters.
“Marty Supreme”
Image credit: Courtesy of Everett Collection
Producer: Eli Bush, Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie, Anthony Katagas, Timothée Chalamet
for:
Timothée Chalamet’s sports car could grow as a “momentum” candidate. The dialogue is lively and the film is culturally relevant. If the unconventional energy this movie showed (i.e. the orange blimp marketing stunt) and a budding love story combine with enough key blocks, it could be a spoiler that turns the competition between the two films into a swap.
For:
Momentum can be noisy without being very deep. If support is concentrated among certain demographics, a Josh Safdie film may struggle to find a way to pass the necessary standards.
“Next Battle”
Image credit: Warner Bros.
Producer: Adam Somner, Sarah Murphy, Paul Thomas Anderson
for:
Paul Thomas Anderson’s action blockbuster has the profile of a classic high-end contender, with critical acclaim, a clear artistic identity, and strong support from the Hollywood community. In ranked voting, this produces a strong #1 showing and a meaningful downstream ranking with voters rating just behind the top candidate. And who wouldn’t want to see the PTA miss his deadline?
For:
Its threat profile is polarized by the tone of some industry voters. If someone sees it as pompous or ruthless, they may set it too low. Additionally, when it comes to ranked voting, the story of the season is “One Battle” vs. “Sinners,” and “Sinners” voters may actively try to thwart their chances. Furthermore, there may be a slight siphoning of votes from “Marty Supreme.”
“Emotional value”
Image credit: Courtesy of Everett Collection
Producer: Maria Ekerhovd, Andrea Berenzen Ottmar
for:
The Norwegian drama directed by Joachim Trier could be a stealth climber in a crowded field. That intimacy that endears him to actor-minded and text-conscious voters may be the secret sauce. When the bigger candidates cancel each other out, voters often pivot to movies that appear to be honest and least divisive.
For:
The biggest risk is the simple physics of voting. Being a smaller candidate, you may suffer if your first-place total is too low.
“Sinners”
Image credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
Producer: Ryan Coogler, PGA, Zinzi Coogler, PGA, Seb Ohanian, PGA
for:
Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic has one of the strongest all-around channels: major cultural excitement, substantive critical conversation, and cross-sector enthusiasm. In terms of preferential treatment, you are given two routes to victory. Either it dominates first place or it is durable enough to be in the top three. If it’s both a passion pick and a consensus pick, it’s going to be very hard to win.
For:
High visibility also increases surveillance. Front-runners often create rival coalitions, and preferential voting provides a mechanism to unite around an alternative. If some voters don’t want the “Sinners” to win, they may line up behind other challengers (i.e. “One Battle After Another” or “Hamnet”).
“Train Dream”
Image credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy of Everett Collection
Producers: Marissa McMahon, PGA, Teddy Schwartzman, PGA, William Janowitz, PGA, Ashley Shleifer, PGA, Michael Heimler, PGA
for:
Clint Bentley’s beautiful Train Dreams benefits from a purpose-built quality ranking system. This film has the potential to be a lauded middle-of-the-road movie that keeps its chances alive as the flashier candidates cannibalize each other. If the final compromise ends up being the film voters like most, it could outshine its better-branded rivals in the most important round and perhaps surprise as Netflix’s first legitimate winner.
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The flip side is that non-urgent agreements are likely to plateau. Movies are everyone’s third choice and can still lose out to stronger ranking contenders.
‘weapons’
Image credit: Warner Bros.
Producer: Zach Creger, PGA, Miri Yoon, PGA
for:
Zack Cregor’s box office horror hit joins the lineup, showing strong guild enthusiasm and suggesting the film has strong ties to at least one influential voting lane. This bodes well for Oscar-nominated supporting actress Amy Madigan.
For:
Being left out of the Oscar Best Picture lineup remains a major structural hurdle. It’s impossible to win in a season where the PGA and Academy lineups overlap.
Which movie will win?
Image credit: Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP
The ones who win are the “sinners”
Chance of winning: “battle after battle”
Should have been nominated: “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classics) “The Secret Agent” (Neon); “Sirat” (Neon). “I’m sorry, baby” (A24). “Voice of Hind Rajab” (Wira)
