Will Sam Raimi’s survival thriller ‘Send Help’ live up to the box office SOS?
Movie theaters across the country aren’t in turmoil, but they could be hurt after the recent winter storm resulted in the lowest overall weekend box office of the year (early). Disney and 20th Century’s “Send Help” could be a box office highlight in late January, with the R-rated film gunning for number one with $14 million to $17 million in 3,475 theaters. With great word of mouth and enthusiasm for the original horror, industry watchers believe “Send Help” has the potential to exceed expectations and last long beyond its debut. At the international box office, the film is projected to bring in $10 million to $12 million.
“Send Help” cost $40 million to make. Raimi, best known for Tobey Maguire’s Spider-Man trilogy, created the Evil Dead series and directed Darkman and Drag Me to Hell before returning to his horror roots with Send Help. Rachel McAdams and Dylan O’Brien play a besotted employee and her toxic boss stranded in a plane crash in “Send Help.” Chief film critic Peter DeBrugge wrote in a review for Variety: “What makes ‘The Help’ so enjoyable is that it remains unpredictable for much of its time on the island.”
“Send Help” should have no problem leading the box office ahead of three newcomers: the sci-fi thriller “Iron Lung,” the Jason Statham-directed action adventure “Shelter,” and the first lady-centered documentary “Melania.” Based on projections, “Iron Lung” could secure second place with $10 million. Meanwhile, “Shelter” is expected to earn between $5 million and $7 million, while “Melania” is expected to earn between $3 million and $5 million.
In the case of “Melania,” the seven-figure start is remarkable for a documentary (especially one that isn’t about a concert), but terrible for a movie that cost $40 million to acquire. Amazon MGM, which is releasing “Melania” in 1,500 theaters across the country, spent that amount on rights fees before spending another $35 million on marketing. This is an astonishing amount for a documentary. Of course, the reason the film has garnered so much attention is because it depicts first lady Melania Trump during the 20 days leading up to Donald Trump’s second presidential inauguration. The film’s theatrical release comes against a backdrop of political unrest, as ICE raids in Minneapolis and other parts of the country have sparked a bipartisan backlash.
Brett Ratner, whose credits include Rush Hour and X-Men: The Last Stand, directed Melania in his first project since his career was derailed by sexual assault allegations in 2017. Amazon MGM will host the world premiere Thursday night at the newly renamed Trump Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C. First lady Melania Trump and Donald Trump, supporters of the president such as Dr. Mehmet Oz and Dr. Phil, and government officials such as Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are also expected to attend. President Trump has gone beyond his massive marketing budget to take the promotion into his own hands, calling “Melania” a “must see” on social media platforms.
“Iron Lung” is another notable release as it is by YouTuber Markiplier. The creator, whose real name is Mark Fishback, wrote, directed, financed and starred in “Iron Lung,” which is based on a 2022 video game. Markiplier, who boasts 73 million followers across digital platforms, including 38 million subscribers on Youtube, is also self-distributing the film. Set in a post-apocalyptic future, the story revolves around a prisoner sent to explore a lunar planet with a “blood ocean” in search of natural resources.
“Shelter” is off to a solid start against its $50 million production budget. The R-rated film was directed by Ric Roman Waugh, the filmmaker behind many action thrillers starring Gerard Butler, including Greenland and Angels Fell. It’s the story of a reclusive man who unwittingly sets off a violent chain reaction after rescuing a young girl from drowning in a terrifying storm. “Shelter” is being released by upstart distributor Black Bear, which will also release Matthew McConaughey’s “The Rival of the King,” group comedy “Spa Weekend” and Guy Ritchie’s “Wives and Dogs” in the coming months.
While it’s still questionable whether they’ll be able to pack in audiences, exhibitors are excited about the possibility of upstarts like Black Bear, Lowe K and Warner Bros. Independent entering the theatrical space. That’s because traditional studios are cutting back on production in response to the pandemic and two labor strikes in Hollywood. With fewer new films and domestic box office revenue still not returning to pre-pandemic levels, last year’s total fell short of the expected $9 billion. Will the long-awaited box office revenue finally recover in 2026?
