Everyone is making predictions about Hollywood’s latest Oscars.
After decades of advocating one of the essential techniques of filmmaking, the Academy will present its first competitive award recognizing achievement in casting at its 98th annual ceremony. This honor marks the first new Oscar category since 2001 for Best Animated Feature. Variety confirmed that the award will be included in the major awards ceremony.
As Hollywood gears up for this historic debut, we’re experiencing a rare moment of collective uncertainty. No one knows exactly how to run a campaign or predict its outcome. It’s refreshing.
In reality, the new categories follow a clear but strict structure. All eligible films will be entered into a preliminary vote, where active members of the Casting Directors Department will vote to create a shortlist of 10 films. This is notable because apart from Best Picture, there is no other category in which members can vote for 10 titles. In theory, that could incentivize branches to watch more movies and open the door to more surprising left-field options. If successful, this could be adopted in other shortlist categories in the future.
After the shortlist is set, the results will proceed to a bake-off. This is an in-person and virtual showcase featuring a five-minute reel of selected scenes and a pre-recorded Q&A with each film’s casting director. Chapter members watch the Bake Off and vote on up to five achievements to determine the official nominee. Finally, in the final round, all Academy members, regardless of branch, can vote for the winner, provided they have seen all five nominated films. Candidates must be credited as Casting Directors (“Casting Director,” “Casting By,” or “Casting”) for key on-screen positions, with a limit of two (2) per production, except in rare circumstances approved by the Chapter’s Executive Committee.
Studio strategists, publicists, and even casting experts grapple with the same core problem: how to visually convey an almost completely intangible process. What makes a compelling five-minute reel when a casting director’s crucial work is done behind closed doors, on Zoom calls, or by instinctive choices not recorded on camera?
“We’re in uncharted territory,” says one awards strategist. “Are we going to show audition footage? Before and after casting decisions? A montage of ensemble chemistry? No one has a script for this yet.”
The academy’s rules outline how it works. The Casting Directors category will shortlist 10 films, each of which will be supplemented with a five-minute reel consisting of a written breakdown of the casting process, a photo grid of the actors, and an excerpt from the final released version. These reels, combined with a Q&A, will be showcased at a bake-off before the branch selects five candidates.
The new award has already sparked debate over whether the category will honor pure casting techniques or become a de facto ensemble award. The criteria are wide-ranging. Great casting might mean discovering fresh talent like Chase Infinity from “One Battle After Another.” That might include finding eerie physical similarities, like Guillaume Malbec as Jean-Luc Godard in “Nouvelle Vague,” or referencing past assumptions to imagine Jeremy Allen White as Bruce Springsteen in “Springsteen: Save Me From Anywhere.” Some voters may simply be drawn to large, star-studded ensembles like Jay Kelly.
Provided by Cannes International Film Festival Space Program
This category also shines a meaningful spotlight on smaller films. Casting director Rebecca Deeley’s intensive search for young performers for IFC’s Charlie Pollinger’s The Plague exemplifies the on-the-ground discoveries that often define independent filmmaking.
“I think it’s hard to cast just one kid, so the idea of having to find eight great kids was quite daunting,” Deeley told Variety. “We conducted an extensive search across the country and found thousands of tapes.”
On paper, the nominees for the inaugural award are Francine Meisler (Sinners, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Ella McKay), Cassandra Kourkundis (One Battle After Another), Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey (Wicked: It represents a vibrant field with many veterans, including “For Good”) and Jennifer Venditti. (“Bugonia,” “Marty Supreme”) and Nina Gold (“Jay Kelly,” “Hamnet”) are among them. There is no limit to the number of slots a casting director can fill.
Whether voters reward discovery or star power, the introduction of a casting Oscar is a long-overdue fix, one that recognizes the invisible labor that shapes movies from the inside out.
The first official chart of casting performance is available here.
The latest Oscar predictions are below.
nouvelle burg
Provided by Cannes Film Festival
*** = Winner prediction
(All predicted candidates below are in alphabetical order)
Best work award
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (notable feature)
“It was just an accident” (Neon)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
director
Paul Thomas Anderson “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Guillermo del Toro “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Ryan Coogler “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi: “It was just an accident” (Neon)
Chloe Zhao “Hamnet” (Featured Feature)
actor
Timothée Chalamet “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura “The Secret Agent” (Neon)
actress
Jesse Buckley “Hamnet” (Featured Feature) ***
Cynthia Erivo “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson “Song Song Bleu” (Focus Features)
Chase Infinity “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Rheinwe “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
supporting actor
Benicio del Toro “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal “Hamnet” (Featured Feature)
Sean Penn “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
supporting actress
Elle Fanning “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Hailee Steinfeld “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
original script
“Do You Have This?” (Searchlight Pictures) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix) – Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Ryan Coogler ***
adapted screenplay
“Bugonia” (Featured Feature) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) – Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet” (Featured Feature) — Chloe Zhao ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) – Clint Bentley, Greg Kweder
casting
“Bugonia” (featured feature) — Jennifer Venditti
“Hamnet” (Featured Feature) — Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Cassandra Kurukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Meisler ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Tiffany Little Canfield, Bernard Telsey
Animation feature
“Arco” (neon)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amelie or Rain Characters” (GKids)
“Ne the 2” (A24)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***
production design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Hamnet” (notable feature)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (notable feature)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
costume design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (notable feature)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Ang Lee’s Testament” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
movie editing
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (notable feature)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
makeup and hair styling
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
visual effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
original score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) – Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Featured Feature) — Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) – Ludwig Göransson ***
“The Will of Ang Lee” (Searchlight Pictures) — Daniel Blumberg
original song
“Dream as One” from “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios)
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Dressed in the Sun” from “The Testament of Ang Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Documentary feature
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
“Sillian’s Story” (National Geographic Documentary Film)
“2000 meters to Andriy Uka” (PBS)
International feature
France “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Brazil’s “The Secret Agent” (neon)
“Sirāt” (neon) in Spain
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) from Norway ***
“Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
Top 5 predicted Oscar nominations (movies): “One Battle After Another” (14). “Sinner” (13). “Frankenstein” (12). “Hamnet” (11). “Wicked: For Good” (9);
Top 5 predicted Oscar nominations (studio): Warner Bros. (30th). Netflix (19); Featured Features (14); Neon (13); A24 (7)
