The Oscar race remains widespread this year, as well as the question of which films will win the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival.
Since the Academy expanded its Best Picture Field in 2009, TIFF Audience Award winners have become trusted Oscar Barometers. Films like “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) won the highest awards, while other films like “The Fabelmans” (2022) are still heavily considered in the awards season. “Where are you going now?” (2011), unable to secure the best photos. All other winners claim at least one Oscar. Last year’s winner Neon was late in 2025, “The Life of Chuck,” faces a tough battle this year to maintain that streak in light of its June release date, but it could possibly show up in the script adaptation (if you’re lucky).
Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” raided Toronto after the debut of the most traditional option, the Telluride. Critics praised Jesse Buckley and Paul Mezcal for their indelible performances as Agnes and William Shakespeare. Still, the film fits Tiff’s historical template. It resonates emotionally, widely accessible, and undoubtedly Oscar-enabled. Festival organizers added screenings based on demand. This is always a positive indicator of award competition.
Several other candidates have placed themselves in Tiff’s top prize.
David Frain’s romantic dramedy “Eternal” is anchored by Miles Terror, Elizabeth Olsen and Oscar winner Davin Joy Randolph (“Holdover”) and provides energy to please the typical crowds who command every scene. Produced by Oscar-nominated duos Tim White and Trevor White, behind “King Richard” (2021), this A24 release has the potential to be a sleeper. A strong theatrical reception could pave the way for the nomination of an original script.
Starr Daniel Craig and director Leanne Johnson returned with raucous applause on “Wake Up Dead Man: Knife Out Mystery.” The previous two “Knife Out” films premiered on TIFF, with “Glass Onion” (2022) in the top three, with the name of the screenplay featured. Johnson’s latest can follow the same trajectory and is welcomed by many circles as the most powerful entry in the franchise. Netflix push certainly helps.
Channing Tatum has drawn out some of the most powerful reviews of Derek Cianfrance’s “Roofman” career. The film was able to generate award momentum for Tatum and co-star Kirsten Dunst, with Paramount Pictures planning a centralised campaign.
Oscar winner Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) is back with screenwriter-director Hikari’s Tokyo set drama “Rental Family.” Searchlight Drama reflected former TIFF audience winners like Belfast (2021), Green Book (2018) and Whale Rider (2002), and was able to attract enough tears to vote for the audience.
Sidney Sweeney presents the impressive dramatic range of “Christie,” a true story of boxer Christie Martin. However, with a rotten tomato score of 61%, this release of Blackemer Pictures appears to be a Sweeney or Bust scenario for OSCAR considerations.
All competing films are capital “I” – importance – not of importance, at least when it comes to the Oscar race.
With global tensions rising, TIFF audiences seemed particularly embraced by films that embraced lightness and escapism. Balancing Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut, “Good Luck” and Colin Hanks’ documentary “John Candy: I Me,” Nia Dacosta’s “Headda” won the tribute awards praise for co-star Nina Hoss’s performer award.
James Vanderbilt’s historic drama “Nuremberg” features Oscar winner Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”) and breakout star Leo Woodall, earning a rare four-minute standing ovation at TIFF.
Tiff has historically embraced non-English language films, with the top three finishers taking historic noms and victory over the years, including “Emilia Pérez” (2024), “The Boy and the Heron” (2023) and “Parasite” (2019). Park Chang Wook’s “No Other Choice,” which closed the TIFF Tribute Award in honor of star Lee Byung-han, may surprise him with at least a top three finish. Korean dark comedy can produce strong mouthful words and lead to big victory.
Apart from “other choices,” Neon places some of the other non-English titles as potential candidates. Clever Mendon Mundon Fillo’s Brazilian thriller “Secret Agent” can pop up with Renate Reines and Stellan Skarsgard, featuring Joachim Treyer’s “Sentimental Values,” and Oliver Laxe’s drama “Silk,” but I’m not sure if they’ve screened enough to place it.
One of the festival’s most talked about acquisition titles, Ann Lee’s Will, features Amanda Seyfried as the founding leader of Shaker’s religious sect. TIFF’s victory, directed by Mona Fastvold and co-authored with Brady Corbet (Fresh Off off off off off “Brutalist), can seal the bidding war among distributors who are paying attention to the Oscar campaign.
The Christophers, starring Ian McKellen, Jessica Gunning and Michaela Koel, remain undistributed, but Chuck’s Life proved that it didn’t thwart TIFF’s victory as Neon embraced it.
Guillermo Del Toro’s “Frankenstein” produced the festival on Monday night, but its heavy Gore content rivals previous winners, “Eastern Promises” (2007) – the vehicles of Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi will be in long shots, but still possible.
Apple Original Films survival dramas “The Lost Bus” and “The Lost Bus” headlined Matthew McConaughey and America Ferrera, keeping the audience at the edge with the story of the bus carrying the bus and teachers fleeing the 2018 campfire in Paradise, California.
Benny Safdy’s “The Smashing Machine” won the Silver Lion manager, and cast members Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt received a enthusiastic reception with actual MMA fighters in attendance. It remains to be seen whether this A24 biopic could break through with mainstream viewers (and voters).
The Tiff Audience has historically supported films that balance accessibility and Gravitas. While “Hamnet” checks most boxes, “Wake Up Dead Man” and “Rental Family” resemble the mainstream, underdog stories that Toronto previously embraced. If Zhao’s literary adaptation represents a safe choice, then Johnson or Hikari’s heartfelt dramains could lead to crowd-driven upsets.
On Sunday, we hear what they have chosen.
The official TIFF Audience Award predictions are below.
Jesse Buckley stars as William Shakespeare as Agnes and Paul Mescal in Chloe Zao’s “Hamnet.”
Agata grzybowska
Top 10 TIFF Audience Award Prediction
“hamnet” (focus function) – dir. Chloé Zhao’s “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix) – dir. Leanne Johnson, “Rental Family” (Photo from Searchlight) – dir. hikari “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures) – dir. Derek Cianfrance “No other choice” (neon) – dir. Park Chan-Wook “The Christophers” (US distributor TBD) – dir. Steven Soderbergh “Eternity” (A24) – dir. David Frain, “Nuremberg” (Sony Pictures Classic) – dir. James Vanderbilt “John Candy: I Like Me” (Prime Video) – dir. Colin Hanks, “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (watermelon photo) – dir. Kaouther Ben Hania
