According to Shailesh Kapoor, founder and CEO of viewer research firm Ormax Media, the entertainment industry in India has experienced two recovery stories.
In an exclusive conversation with variety, Kapoor paints a picture of careful optimism about Bollywood and regional cinema, despite the structural challenges of the wider entertainment ecosystem, which can restructure content production and monetization with India’s 1.4 billion population.
Kapoor says the Hindi Bollywood industry has bounced deeper at the box office compared to 2023.
“This year we had a ‘chaava’. This was a good Inn 500 Crois Plus ($57 million) movie. But apart from that, there was nothing in that league. “This increases the stability of the industry and reduces dependence on one or two stars or franchises. That’s a healthier type of growth.”
This change represents a significant evolution of the Governor’s audience behavior. While 2024 saw long stretches without a massive release, leading to the unusual phenomenon of re-releasing classic films, this year has proven to bring viewers to quality content across the genre, not just action spectacles.
However, Kapoor warns himself of complacentness. “Ideally, you shouldn’t be satisfied with the same number being maintained. Any industry should consider growth of 8-10% per year. That hasn’t happened in the last two years,” he says.
“The audience essentially responds to other elements, such as music and star cast, primarily (and more) than the story or theme of the film,” Kapoor pointed out, highlighting the key role of pricing strategies. He cites the success of “saiyaara” and states that the early announcement of discounts allows most viewers to watch ticket prices close to INR150-200 ($1.70-2.25), rather than the premium price of INR250-300 (2.85-3.40).
Kapoor highlighted the October prequel to Kannada “Kantala” as a potential Pan India hit, along with the Hindi title “Dhurandhar” and the supernatural franchise entry “Thama” from Maddock Films. He also pointed out early predictions regarding the star-driven Telugu language slate and the “Ramayan” scheduled for Diwali 2026.
Theatre shows signs of recovery, but the streaming sector faces a more calm reality. “Subscriptions are stagnant,” Kapoor said honestly. “The 100 million subscriptions in India won’t go up. The paid subscription model has found saturation. In countries like India, growth must come from an ad-supported model, as the idea of entertainment payments is not yet deeply ingrained,” he says. He noted that the platform has already cut film acquisition costs by nearly 50%, restructuring the production economy.
“The previous platforms were willing to pay a huge premium to win big theatrical films,” Kapoor explains. “Today they’re much more cautious. They don’t get that many small movies. Bigger movies, they’re trying to negotiate more vigorously.” This response was directed towards an ad-supported model. Prime Video has already introduced ads in India, while Netflix is exploring similar options globally.
The merger of Jiocinema-Hotstar earlier this year marked the renewal as Jiostar, creating new dynamics as the platform becomes more active with content acquisition.
Tier 2 and Tier 3 audiences are now at the heart of their streamer strategy, but Kapoor says change takes time. “Of all the original shows made in the last year and a half, 49% are based in Mumbai or Delhi, as these cities contribute slightly to 7% of OTT (streaming) viewers,” he says. “The real impact of Tier 2 and 3 targeting may only be visible in another year or so.”
Meanwhile, TV continues to be underrated, Kapoor argues. “There’s a cognitive problem with television. It’s stagnant, but it won’t die. It has a much more than 900 million viewers than Ott. The bigger problem is that advertisers leave and create stories of decline,” he says.
Asked how three major sectors, theatre, streaming and television, can grow in the 1.4 billion countries, Kapoor points to the new format. “Shorter vertical content can lead to growth. In China, microdramas are overtaking theatre. India is the smartphone-first market, so you need to look for the format that suits your screen,” he says.
The challenges remain important. While India’s population suggests the potential for a large market, Kapoor estimates that the entire content economy is built around 10-15% of the population, with 25% of the country remaining “media dark” without accessing television or smartphones.
Kapoor is also looking at Hollywood’s recovery in India this year. “Hollywood is really back… several films have worked out this year. ‘F1’, ‘Superman’ and ‘Jurassic World’ have worked out.
