The bursting of the TV bubble continues to impact Emmy submissions, with comedy, drama and limited series nominations likely to drop even further this year.
Variety has been tracking which shows are likely to be eligible for Emmy voting, and found that the number of eligible series is once again decreasing. According to the latest tracker, there will be approximately 87 applications for drama series, 70 for comedy, and 32 for limited/anthology. This would result in a total of 189 possible entries across the three major races.
Of course, just before the eligibility period ends, we usually see some surprises, last-minute launches, and obscure entries (some self-submitted), so that number could be even higher. Still, the final number is likely to be the lowest in years, down from 228 cases in 2025, 229 cases in 2024 and 309 cases in 2023. This last figure reflects a 33% decline from 2022 due to delayed strikes across the industry.
Meanwhile, 600 applications were in contention across all 15 program races last year, down from 614 the year before.
The Television Academy determines the number of nominees in a category based on the number of programs and individuals submitted, so fewer nominees will likely also mean fewer nominations. There are some exceptions. Great Drama and Great Comedy always honors eight nominees.
However, there are 80 other standard categories and 30 “area” awards, with the number of nominees determined by the number of applications. For example, the acting category requires at least 80 individual applications to guarantee six candidates. For the past two years, the lead actress category has been limited to five nominees.
But if the batch of shows shrinks, there could be a slight upside. With fewer shows for voters to choose from, perhaps smaller, chronically overlooked series could break out.
Will Trent – He’s alive!
disney
That could be good news for critically acclaimed but lesser-known productions like “Industry,” the HBO financial drama starring Maihara and Marisa Abela, which received no nominations in each of the past three seasons. And perhaps ABC’s procedural “Will Trent” will be a hit with late-scheduled star Ramon Rodriguez.
As for other categories, limited series racing has become a haven for the most passionate competitors in recent years. A smaller screening could open the door to potential films such as Prime Video’s “Bait,” starring Riz Ahmed, and Starz’s upcoming revival of “Amadeus.”
It could also pave the way for long-awaited recognition as an actor. Among the most exciting new entries is NBC’s “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins.” It’s a sharp comedy with an incredible ensemble that could boost performers like “Saturday Night Live” alumnus Bobby Moynihan and the always excellent Erica Alexander.
“This small pool creates opportunities for shows that get lost in the noise,” one strategist told Variety. “We now have more bandwidth to discover things we may have missed.”
The Emmy submission deadline is May 7th, and voting for the nomination round begins June 11th. The latest forecasts for this week can be found below and on the official forecasts page.
*** = Winner prediction
(All predicted candidates below are in alphabetical order)
“Sinners”
Eli Ade
Emmy Prediction Tracker
(April 23, 2026)
drama series
“The Diplomat” (Netflix)
“Euphoria” (HBO Max)
“Paradise” (Hulu)
“The Pit” (HBO Max) ***
“Pluribus” (Apple TV)
“Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
“Will” (Hulu)
comedy series
“Abbott Elementary School” (ABC)
“The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
“Hax” (HBO Max) ***
“Jury Duty Presents: Company Camp” (Prime Video)
“Margo’s Money Trouble” (Apple TV)
“Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Limited or anthology series
“Beef” (Netflix)
“DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
“Half Man” (HBO Max)
“Lord of the Flies” (Netflix)
“Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bisset” (FX)
Leading actor (drama)
Sterling K. Brown “Paradise” (Hulu)
Gary Oldman “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Billy Magnussen “The Audacity” (AMC)
Mark Ruffalo “Tusk” (HBO Max)
Noah Wyle “The Pit” (HBO Max) ***
Leading actor (comedy)
Steve Carell “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Steve Martin “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Tracy Morgan, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Martin Short “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Leading actor (limited edition/movie)
Jason Bateman “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
Jamie Bell “Half Man” (HBO Max) ***
Charlie Hunnam “Monster: The Ed Gain Story” (Netflix)
Oscar Isaac “Beef” (Netflix)
Matthew Rhys “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Lead actress (drama)
Chase Infinity “Testament” (Hulu)
Michelle Pfeiffer, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Keri Russell “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV) ***
Zendaya “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Lead actress (comedy)
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wanted This” (Netflix)
Quinta Branson “Abbott Elementary School” (ABC)
Elle Fanning “Margo’s Money Trouble” (Apple TV)
Lisa Kudrow “The Comeback” (HBO Max)
Gene Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
Leading actress (limited time/video)
Claire Danes “The Beast in Me” (Netflix)
Carey Mulligan “Beef” (Netflix) ***
Sarah Pidgeon “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bisset” (FX)
Tessa Thompson “He and She” (Netflix)
Kerry Washington, “Imperfect Women” (Apple TV)
Best Supporting Actor (Drama)
Patrick Ball “The Pit” (HBO Max)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Colman Domingo “Euphoria” (HBO Max)
Zach Galifianakis “The Audacity” (AMC)
Jack Lowden “Slow Horses” (Apple TV)
Tom Pelphrey, “Tusk” (HBO Max) ***
Kurt Russell, “The Madison” (Paramount+)
Carlos-Manuel Vesuga “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Best Supporting Actor (Comedy)
Paul W. Downs “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Harrison Ford “Shrinking” (Apple TV) ***
Ben Kingsley “Wonder Man” (Disney+)
Bobby Moynihan, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach “The Bear” (FX)
Nick Offerman, “Margo’s Money Trouble” (Apple TV)
Michael Urie “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Bowen Yang “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Best Supporting Actor Award (Limited Edition/Theatrical Version)
Jason Bateman “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max)
Stuart Campbell “Half Man” (HBO Max)
Richard Gadd “Half Man” (HBO Max)
David Harbor “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
Song Kang-ho “Beef” (Netflix)
Charles Melton “Beef” (Netflix)
Alessandro Nivola “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bisset” (FX)
Best Supporting Actress (Drama)
Marisa Abela “Industry” (HBO Max)
Isa Briones “The Pit” (HBO Max)
Taylor Dearden, “The Pit” (HBO Max)
Allison Janney “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pit” (HBO Max) ***
Sepideh Moafi “The Pit” (HBO Max)
Julianne Nicholson “Paradise” (Hulu)
Karolina Wydra “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Best Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Erica Alexander, “The Fall and Rise of Reggie Dinkins” (NBC)
Daniel Deadwyler “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Hanna Einbinder, “Hax” (HBO Max) ***
Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Li Junli “Spider Noir” (Prime Video)
Annie Mumolo, “Rooster” (HBO Max)
Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary School” (ABC)
Jessica Williams “Shrinking” (Apple TV)
Best Supporting Actress (Limited/Movie)
Linda Cardellini “DTF St. Louis” (HBO Max) ***
Grace Gummer “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bisset” (FX)
Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Kylie Spaeny “Beef” (Netflix)
Naomi Watts “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bisset” (FX)
Yoo Jung Yoon “Beef” (Netflix)
Constance Zimmer “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bisset” (FX)
