Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Jay Kelly. (L-R) George Clooney as Jay Kelly and Adam Sandler as Ron Sukenick on the set of Jay Kelly. Cr. Peter Mountain/Netflix © 2025.
Peter Mountain/Netflix
The Actor Awards Commentary (Updated: Nov. 24, 2025): The Screen Actors Guild Awards have a new name, but their significance within the awards season remains unchanged.
Now called The Actor Awards, nominations will be announced Jan. 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote — the largest voting body of any major awards show — the results often reflect populist tastes and broad mainstream appeal.
This year’s eligibility window covers performances released between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be a competitive field across all categories.
Still, history suggests familiar patterns may persist. The nomination committee and wider voting membership historically lean toward English-language performances, a tendency that could challenge international contenders despite critical acclaim.
The ensemble race is especially crowded. Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” is entering as an early frontrunner with a star-studded cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, a lineup that fits the guild’s well-established preference for recognizable names.
Universal’s “Wicked: For Good” arrives with Broadway pedigree and cultural phenomenon status, boosted by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Netflix’s “Jay Kelly” could give the streamer a high-profile ensemble entry with George Clooney and Adam Sandler leading the charge.
Last year’s winner, Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), continues his momentum with A24’s “Marty Supreme.” Notably, no film actor has ever won back-to-back SAG Awards. That could open the door for someone else to take the top spot.
Leonardo DiCaprio returns to contention with “One Battle After Another,” potentially extending his streak of major studio collaborations. However, Ethan Hawke is viewed by many (though not all — at least not yet) as a major contender for Sony Pictures Classics’ “Blue Moon.” With decades of collaborations across the industry, Hawke could benefit from deep goodwill among actors, making him a compelling dark horse who has long been considered overdue.
Noticeably absent from these early projections is Wagner Moura for Brazil’s “The Secret Agent.” Despite emphatic praise from critics, the guild’s long-standing hesitation to nominate non-English language performances — see Sandra Hüller’s omission for “Anatomy of a Fall” — remains a barrier.
Still, Stellan Skarsgård could break through that trend with his turn in the Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value,” along with his co-star Renate Reinsve, who is vying for recognition in the lead actress category.
When it comes to best actress, it still looks to be Jessie Buckley’s to lose from “Hamnet,” but there could be room for some outside the box contenders to sneak in, such as Lucy Liu from the indie drama “Rosemead.”
Supporting actress is shaping up to be equally competitive. Grande, delivering a vocal and dramatic showcase in “Wicked: For Good,” emerges as a serious player that goes beyond her music career. Emily Blunt’s turn in “The Smashing Machine,” opposite Dwayne Johnson, gives her another strong shot with a guild that has rewarded her consistently throughout her career.
Check out the predictions in all film and TV categories below.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
FILM
Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “Marty Supreme” (A24); “Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix); “Sentimental Value” (Neon); “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features); “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Dwayne Johnson, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: George Clooney, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix); Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix); Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein” (Netflix); Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon); Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere” (20th Century Studios)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Female Actor in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Lucy Liu, “Rosemead” (Vertical)
Alternates: Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24); Laura Dern, “Is This Thing On?” (Searchlight Pictures); Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon); Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures); Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Alternates: Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix); Mark Hamill, “The Life of Chuck” (Neon); Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.); William H. Macy, “Train Dreams” (Netflix); Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Regina Hall, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Glenn Close, “Wake Up Dead Man” (Netflix); Kirsten Dunst, “Roofman” (Paramount Pictures); Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.); Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme” (A24); Hailee Steinfeld, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Oscar category page with rankings>>>
Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios); “Mickey 17” (Warner Bros.); “The Naked Gun” (Paramount Pictures); “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.); “Predator: Badlands” (20th Century Studios); “Warfare” (A24)
TV
Cast Ensemble in a Drama Series
“Andor” (Disney+)
“The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
“The Pitt” (HBO Max)
“Severance” (Apple TV)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix) ***
Alternates: “The Diplomat” (Netflix); “The Gilded Age” (HBO Max); “It: Welcome to Derry” (HBO Max); “Slow Horses” (Apple TV); “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Cast Ensemble in a Comedy Series
“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
“Hacks” (HBO Max)
“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
“The Paper” (Peacock)
“The Studio” (Apple TV) ***
Alternates: “The Bear” (FX); “The Four Seasons” (Netflix); “I Love L.A.” (HBO Max); “Saturday Night Live” (NBC); “Wednesday” (Netflix)
Male Actor in a Drama Series
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV)
Mark Ruffalo, “Task” (HBO Max)
Adam Scott, “Severance” (Apple TV)
Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV)
Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Alternates: Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu); Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max); Gary Oldman, “Slow Horses” (Apple TV); Pedro Pascal, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max); Tom Pelphrey, “Task” (HBO Max)
Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Glen Powell, “Chad Powers” (Hulu)
Tim Robinson, “The Chair Company” (HBO Max)
Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV) ***
Alexander Skarsgård, “Murderbot” (Apple TV)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)
Alternates: Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix); Ted Danson, “A Man on the Inside” (Netflix); Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear” (FX); Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu); Bowen Yang, “Saturday Night Live” (NBC)
Female Actor in a Drama Series
Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV)
Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max) ***
Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV); Millie Bobby Brown, “Stranger Things” (Netflix); Parker Posey, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max); Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix); Winona Ryder, “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday” (Netflix)
Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max) ***
Alternates: Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear” (FX); Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu); Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV); Rachel Sennott, “I Love L.A.” (HBO Max); Kristen Wiig, “Palm Royale” (Apple TV)
Male Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix) ***
Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief” (Apple TV)
Wagner Moura, “Dope Thief” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix); Sterling K. Brown, “Washington Black” (Hulu); Robert DeNiro, “Zero Day” (Netflix); Paul Giamatti, “Black Mirror” (Netflix); Chris O’Dowd, “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
Female Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Meghann Fahy, “Sirens” (Netflix)
Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX) ***
Alternates: Patricia Arquette, “Murdaugh: Death in the Family” (Hulu); Toni Collette, “Wayward” (Netflix); Claire Danes, “The Beast in Me” (Netflix); Laurie Metcalf, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix); Amanda Seyfried, “Long Bright River” (Peacock)
Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“Andor” (Disney+)
“Alien: Earth” (FX)
“Gen V” (Prime Video)
“The Last of Us” (HBO Max) ***
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Alternates: “Cobra Kai” (Netflix); “Fallout” (Prime Video); “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO Max); “Severance” (Apple TV); “Squid Game” (Netflix)
