2026 Oscar’s Best Original Screenplay Prediction

The Variety Awards Circuit section is the home of all award news and related content throughout the year, featuring: Official predictions for the Oscar, Emmy, Grammy and Tony Awards rituals curated by Variety Senior Awards editor Clayton Davis. The forecast page reflects the current ranking of the race and does not reflect personal preferences for individual candidates. As other formal (and informal) votes suggest, competition is fluid and can vary based on buzz and event. The forecast is updated every Thursday.

Commentary on Oscar’s Best Original Screenplay (Updated October 2, 2025): If you’re wondering what kind of story Hollywood can celebrate this awards season, the answer is basically “everything.”

The theme of the original scripted Oscar Race really has it all. Bouncing off the story of a “sinner” brother to a “sentimental value” sister, the messy divorce is “This Thing On?” and the flashy confusion of Tinseltown in “Jay Kelly.” Political addicts get help from government corruption through “it was just an accident” and “secret agents,” but “the House of Dynamite” asks a hilarious question: what happens when humanity is destined?

The real fun lies in the wildcards of the category. Newcomer Eva Victor was able to crash the party with “Sorry, Baby.” Horror fans could see the genre get deadlines with “weapons.” This can be combined well with “sinners.” There is also a “Roofman.” This dramatically depicts the true story of a robber who lived in a toy for a year.

Some of this year’s candidates may come from variety screenwriters, but they were announced alongside something like Austin Corodney, who has gathered stories of tense rivets in Gus Van San’s “The Wire of a Dead Man.”

Note: All titles, release dates, studios and final credits are subject to change.

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